It’s almost August, so… Happy Halloween?
Well, retailers are already building marketing momentum for that end of October celebration. But even before the first jack o’lanterns, ghosts, and skeletons sales began being posted, the shelves (digital and physical) needed to be cleared for back-to-school items.
As Attain purchase panel data shows, those shelves were being emptied in July. In the not-too-distant past, August kicked off the standard back-to-school shopping period. That moment has moved decisively, Attain found.
After a flat spring baseline of roughly 3.5 percent of seasonal spend per week through May and June, back-to-school purchasing broke sharply upward in the week of July 7, 2025 — jumping to nearly 6 percent of total seasonal spend and holding that elevated plateau for two months before fading back toward baseline by mid-September. Volume roughly doubled across every category in that takeoff week, with the average receipt running $21.
The data puts a precise timestamp on something retailers and agencies have been watching in real time.
“The back-to-school season is definitely starting earlier, with retail campaigns launching as early as July,” says Abbie Kinn, account manager at ad agency True Media. “As the retail space becomes more saturated, brands are trying to connect with families sooner, building multiple touchpoints across a wide range of ages and demographics.”
The season split cleanly along price lines. Electronics, which includes calculators, computers, tablets, and accessories accounted for 52.8 percent of all back-to-school spend, with an average receipt of $94.13, comfortably the priciest baskets of the season.
Supplies ran in the opposite direction: 30.8 percent of spend but averaging just $6.65 a receipt, driven by frequent, low-cost trips for pencils, paper, and notebooks. Kids’ and teen apparel filled the middle at 11.5 percent of spend, while footwear came in at 4.8 percent with an average receipt of $38.30, Attain data found.
The receipt average tells a fuller story. The blended back-to-school average was $16.78, but that figure reflects a season in which a small number of roughly $94 electronics transactions sit alongside a much larger volume of smaller supply runs. As supplies claimed an ever-larger share of receipts deeper into August, the typical basket got cheaper — averaging $14 by early August — even as total volume stayed elevated.
Three retailers captured two-thirds of that spending, according to Attain.
Walmart alone took 35.2 percent of back-to-school dollars, with an average receipt of $13.82 — cheap, frequent trips that made it the season’s workhorse. Amazon ran second at 19.1 percent, with a much higher average receipt of $52.84 reflecting its strength in electronics. Amazon also led in kids’ footwear. Target came in third at 14.1 percent, leading in kids’ apparel despite trailing in overall spend.
One big reason for the shift in back-to-school purchases appears reflected in the change of a certain commerce leader’s sales “holiday.”
Neil Ford, head of sales at mobile marketing provider Big Happy, points to Amazon Prime Day in early July as the event that effectively signals the season’s opening. “For many families, the season now effectively begins with Prime Day in early July,” Ford says.
“Retailers have learned that consumers are looking for deals, and many parents are eager to spread out what can be a significant expense.” That promotional pull-forward, he adds, is amplified by school calendars that now send students back in mid-August in many districts rather than after Labor Day.
The timing also varies significantly by the age and life stage of the student. Ford notes that parents of college students tend to shop earliest, given the scale of purchases involved — dorm furnishings, laptops, and other high-ticket items that require more planning. Families with younger children often wait for school supply lists to be finalized before buying, although they are still buying earlier than they used to..
“Parents of younger children are often working from detailed school supply lists and may purchase earlier to avoid shortages,” says Aniket Deosthali, CEO at Envive AI. “College students tend to shop in waves as housing assignments, class schedules and financial aid become clearer.”
Maija Hoehn, CMO of full-service agency broadhead, describes the shift from personal experience. Her daughter headed into sixth grade last fall, and they had already purchased locker décor months before the first day of class.
“The excitement of a new school year starts months before the first day of class, and that excitement drives purchasing well before families are buying notebooks and glue sticks,” Hoehn says. That excitement translates into multi-stage purchasing moments that brands must now be present for across the summer, not just during a single promotional window.
Alicia Fisher, head of strategy at creative agency Trade School, argues the shift runs deeper than the calendar.
Nearly half of parents now buy only the essentials upfront and replenish as they go, with 57 percent still purchasing school supplies after school has already started, according to MRI-Simmons 2026 data. The spending pattern, Fisher argues, now resembles grocery shopping more than a traditional seasonal event. “Parents stock up on the shelf-stable stuff — binders, pencils, and notebooks — whenever the price is right, and then keep going back for what needs to stay fresh: clothing, updated tech, and supply restocks.”
“Back-to-school might be the first major retail season to fully de-seasonalize,” Fisher says.
Economic pressure is reinforcing that behavior. With household budgets stretched, families are increasingly spreading purchases across multiple weeks and waiting for promotional moments rather than completing a single large haul. “In today’s economic environment, money is often too tight for one big haul,” Fisher notes.
For retailers, the practical implication is substantial. Kinn puts it plainly: “This year, we’re seeing a shift toward building an experience around back-to-school shopping. Retailers want to be a one-stop shop where parents can check everything off their list in a single trip while still finding good deals.” Deosthali frames it as a signal-detection problem. “The more important question is no longer when the season officially starts,” he says, “but when a particular shopper begins signaling intent.”
