Early Bird Trends Hold Strong, But With Mixed Results

The ringing of the year’s first school bells have barely started to fade, but it’s not too early to grade retail performance for the beginning of the academic year. According to a survey by the National Retail Federation released as the summer got underway, one in five consumers (22%) had already started their shopping for the ‘24/’25 school year as of early June.

So far, retailers’ early marketing appears to have paid off as expected. But consumer activity is fickle, and inflationary pressures, though ebbing, hover over shopping plans from discovery to final purchase. On top of that, “seasonal shopping,” from Halloween to Christmas, is starting earlier every year, making it ever more necessary for marketers to  shift their consumer mindset in order to be ready when the end of a designated period draws closer.

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Pandemic Shift Becomes Permanent 

In late August, the NRF updated its July back-to-school forecast, noting that shoppers were purchasing educational items even as they planned their summer vacations. Katherine Cullen, the NRF’s VP of Industry and Consumer Insights, tells The Outcome that the early shopping trend, initially spurred by pandemic-era supply chain concerns, has become a lasting behavior in 2024.

"While the trend of shopping early during major spending events was originally prompted by supply chain delays during the pandemic, it is a behavior that has continued to shape consumer behavior in 2024," Cullen explains.

New data from Attain offers a further nuanced picture. While 26% of consumers planned to start their shopping earlier, 15% expected to shop closer to the start of school, says Madi Bradford, manager of Data Strategy, Measurement & Insights at Attain. This split indicates a diverse approach to back-to-school shopping, with some families spreading out their purchases and others waiting for last-minute deals.

Attain: Top Categories, Weekly Percent of Spend during BTS 

Consumer Spending: A Mixed Bag

Despite continued inflationary pressures, Attain's real-time consumer survey found that 16% of participants anticipated spending more on back-to-school items. However, an equal percentage (15%) planned to spend less, pointing to a mixed economic outlook among consumers.

Interestingly, Attain's transaction data shows varied results across different retail categories:

• Big-Box Stores: These were the only category to see an increase in average transaction amount year-over-year, with a 1.1% rise. However, purchase frequency decreased by 1%.
• Discount Stores: The average transaction amount remained relatively stable with a slight 0.1% decrease, but purchase frequency dropped significantly by 8%.
• Department Stores: These saw both a decrease in average transaction amount (1%) and a substantial drop in purchase frequency (7%).

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Shopping Patterns Throughout the Season

Attain's weekly data provides fascinating insights into consumer behavior throughout the back-to-school season:

• Big-Box Stores: Consistent with 2023 trends, there were spikes in average transaction amounts in late July ($55) and the third week of August ($54), suggesting both early shopping and last-minute purchases.
• Discount Stores: Average transaction amounts remained steady at around $18 throughout the season, with a slight increase to $19 in late August.
• Department Stores: These saw a gradual increase in average transaction amounts from $54 at the end of June to $58 in late August, with a noticeable spike in the third week of August.

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Retailer Responses and Consumer Value-Seeking

The varied spending patterns across different store types suggest that consumers were actively seeking the best value for their purchases. Cullen notes, "Consumers are being thoughtful about their spending, prioritizing non-discretionary purchases as they continue to face high interest rates and lingering inflation."

Retailers responded to this value-seeking behavior by offering seasonal sales and promotional events throughout the summer, with July emerging as a key month for school shopping. Major retail events like Prime Day, Target Deal Days, and 4th of July sales saw strong turnouts, particularly for electronics, school supplies, and clothing.

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Looking Ahead: Retail Outlook

Asked about what this season might indicate for the rest of the year, Cullen expresses cautious optimism. "Overall, NRF is forecasting that retail sales for 2024 will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over last year, in line with historical rates of growth," Cullen says.

However, the mixed results across different retail categories and the decrease in purchase frequency for discount and department stores suggest that consumers are being more selective in their shopping habits. This could indicate a trend toward more focused, value-driven purchasing as we approach the holiday shopping season.

As we move into the fall, it's clear that the back-to-school shopping season of 2024 was characterized by a diverse set of consumer behaviors. While early shopping trends continued, there was also evidence of last-minute purchasing and careful budget management across different store types.

For retailers, the key takeaway seems to be the importance of offering value throughout the season, catering to both early birds and last-minute shoppers. As we approach the holiday season, it will be crucial for retailers to continue adapting to these evolving consumer behaviors, potentially by offering staggered promotions and emphasizing value across their product ranges.