The so-called “vibecession,” the term given to describe the disconnect between consumers’ perceptions of the economy and their purchase behavior, remains in place this summer as consumers continue to spend despite expressing low consumer confidence, according to new analysis conducted by purchase data firm Attain.
Consumers have exhibited some fickle shopping behavior over the past two years. They have shown a continued willingness to make discretionary purchases on flights, clothes and hotels, while at the same time insisting they are budget conscious and wary of the state of the economy.
Hotel and lodging spending, for example, has remained steady over the past two years, with the average total monthly spend hovering between $340 and $370 over this time period. The total monthly spend on flights in May 2025 was up from a year prior.
Airline spending, another travel category, hit its two-year peak for average total monthly spend just this March. Spending per transaction increased by $20 from mid-2023 to early 2025.
Spending on clothing and accessories, another discretionary purchase category, also remained high. The average total monthly spend peaked this March, at $187.50, while spending in May 2025 was also up from the year prior.
Grocery spending, too, has remained consistent, with average monthly spend varying between $185 and $200, and average spend per transaction varying approximately only $3 ($39 to $42).
All of these data would seem to indicate a healthy economy, filled with consumers eager to spend their discretionary income on trips and new threads. But if you ask those same consumers how they feel about the economy, they portray a colder economic outlook.
In addition to analyzing purchase data, Attain conducted a consumer sentiment survey, and the results show consumers are apprehensive about spending — at least they say they are.
“Income stability” is the most important factor in consumers’ decision making, with 42 percent of survey respondents selecting it as their primary influence. That was followed closely by “rising prices” at 35 percent.
Nearly half (49 percent) of respondents reported spending less in the past month on clothing, electronics and household goods. A similar percentage (47 percent) report planning to spend less on those items in the next three months. When they do buy those items, the majority (62 percent) of customers say pricing is the most important factor in what item they choose to purchase.
There is plenty for consumers to be worried about. It’s unclear whether President Trump’s proposed spending bill, which will include substantial cuts to taxes and spending, will pass through Congress. The White House’s pause on global tariffs is set to expire on July 9, possibly starting a trade war. Inflation continues to be sticky and annoy customers at the cash register. And there are military conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza and between Israel and Iran.
And yet none of this economic concern seems to be showing up in consumers’ actual spending behaviors. It appears to be a classic case of cognitive dissonance — people think the economy is in a tenuous position, and that they might even want to cut back on spending themselves, though they continue to purchase with the same frequency and dollar amount.
Thus the vibecession. The vibes might not be great, but the reality is consumers are still having a good time in spite of them.
