Classes aren’t even over in most parts of the country, and yet, retailers and consumers are already gearing up for next fall’s back-to-school shopping.
As The Outcome reported last year, Attain found a significant 26% of consumers plan to start their shopping in late July; in an update for 2025/2026 school year, just 14% expect to wait until closer to the school year’s start (i.e., mid-to-late August). This acceleration of the shopping calendar represents a major rebalancing in both consumer behavior and retail strategy, driven by economic pressures, competitive dynamics, and evolving shopping habits.
The trend builds on patterns on last year’s Attain data, which showed that when retailers previewed deals throughout summer to capture budget-conscious early shoppers, spending increases of 9% from late July to early August, with average transaction amounts rising 3%.
“Not only do we expect to see the trend of early shopping continue, upwards of 1 in 5 parents are going to rely on AI to compare prices, research products, and read reviews while paying more attention to value because of inflation and economic uncertainty,” says Daelin Mackey, director of Integrated Media at independent agency True Media.
This technological reordering represents more than convenience—it’s dramatically changing how parents approach the increasingly complex back-to-school shopping decision-making.
With AI tools enabling instant price comparisons across retailers and real-time deal alerts, the advantage of shopping early becomes even more pronounced. Parents can track price fluctuations over weeks rather than days, optimizing their purchases in ways previously impossible.
Walmart dominates the early shopping period, capturing 65% of spending among major big-box retailers with an average transaction of $54.28 and remarkable purchase frequency of 7.8 times during the season. This frequency suggests parents are spreading purchases across multiple trips, likely chasing deals and managing budgets through strategic timing.
Ashley Pfannebecker, director of Strategy at True Media, points to Amazon’s influence on the calendar shift. “Economic pressures certainly play into earlier shopping, with retailers moving their sales up to start earlier in response to Amazon’s Prime Day and consumers wanting to take advantage of the deals. In addition, by shopping earlier, consumers are able to spread out expenses so it doesn’t have as great of an impact on their monthly budgets.”
Mike Oelhafen, associate account director at True Media, notes how economic volatility fundamentally alters shopping psychology: “In periods of uncertainty, consumers typically spend more time finding the best price, looking for alternatives, and are willing to wait for prices to drop in lieu of securing the perfect item. This behavior translates to longer time periods and customizing more messages for the price conscious and discerning shopper.”
This extended decision-making process has profound implications for retailers. The traditional concentrated burst of August shopping has evolved into a three-month marathon requiring sustained marketing investment and inventory management. Retailers must now maintain promotional intensity while carefully managing margins across a significantly longer selling season.
Beyond timing and technology, the products themselves are changing. “One of the biggest trends we’re seeing is the increasing demand for eco-friendly, sustainable, and non-toxic school supplies, as a result of both Gen Alpha — and their parents — continually increasing environmental consciousness, especially compared to previous generations,” Pfannebecker says.
This shift toward sustainable products adds complexity to inventory planning and pricing strategies. Eco-friendly options often carry premium prices, yet they’re increasingly becoming table stakes for retailers hoping to capture environmentally conscious families who are also navigating economic pressures.
The expanded shopping season creates both promise and pitfalls across the retail ecosystem. For retailers, the extended timeline offers more chances to capture consumer spending but demands sustained promotional intensity and sophisticated inventory management. For consumers, earlier shopping enables better budget management and deal-hunting but requires constant vigilance to avoid missing optimal prices.
As retailers and families adapt to this new reality, the back-to-school season increasingly resembles a carefully choreographed dance between economic necessity and strategic opportunity. Pfannebecker captures the essence of this transformation: “By shopping earlier, consumers are able to spread out expenses so it doesn’t have as great of an impact on their monthly budgets.”
This movement from concentrated spending to distributed purchasing may be the most lasting legacy of recent economic uncertainties—a change that benefits both careful consumers and nimble retailers willing to adapt to the new calendar of commerce.
.png)
