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“Halloween creep,” the phenomenon of early season marketing that’s been haunting shoppers the last several Augusts, has become an established ritual.
But new data from Attain suggests that what some consumers perceive as premature holiday promotion is actually a strategic response to significant shifts in shopping behavior. The numbers also dispel debates about whether the ghost stories are arriving too soon before the witching hours of October.
Attain’s data shows a clear pattern of earlier consumer engagement with Halloween shopping, and the trend has been building for years. At Michaels Stores, a five-year analysis reveals a dramatic transformation in when consumers shop for Halloween items. In August 2020, average total spend stood at $47.21. By August 2025, that figure had climbed to $48.41 — but more tellingly, September 2025 spending reached $50.11, surpassing even the traditional October peaks seen in prior years.
The pattern becomes even more striking when examining year-over-year growth.
Spending growth in 2025 became visible as early as August, with total spend up over 30% compared to August 2024 ($36.66), Attain found. The momentum continued through September, with spending rising to $50.12 — a 33% increase over September 2024’s $37.60. This represents a notable shift in when consumers are willing to open their wallets for seasonal merchandise.
What makes this trend particularly significant is its consistency. October spending at Michaels, traditionally the peak month, has actually declined over the five-year period — from $39.64 in October 2020 to $35.06 in October 2024 — even as August and September spending has either held steady or increased. Consumers aren’t necessarily spending more overall; they’re redistributing their Halloween budgets earlier in the season.
The National Retail Federation’s latest projections support this trend, forecasting that Halloween spending will hit a record $13.1 billion this year, with average per-person spend climbing to $114.45, noted Bess Devenow, Retail Media Analyst at Vantage. Perhaps most tellingly, NRF’s research finds that 49% of consumers planned to start their Halloween shopping before October — essentially flipping the traditional shopping calendar on its head.
“Early Halloween marketing isn’t creeping consumers out; it’s meeting them where they already are,” Devenow said. “The real question isn’t ‘Is it too early?’ It’s ‘Are brands adding value during this extended window?’”
Getting the jump on Halloween is actually anxiety disguised as excitement for marketers and shoppers, said Luis Tauffer, CEO of ad and marketing agency Act.77.
“Both consumers and brands are driven by the same restless energy, trying to fill every quiet moment with something new. You can see the same behavior in Super Bowl and Black Friday campaigns,” Tauffer said. “While Super Bowl ads used to be unveiled during the game itself, brands now release them weeks earlier to generate buzz and engagement ahead of time.”
The evolution of Black Friday represents a case study in marketing madness, Tauffer added. What was once a single day of “shopping frenzy” has expanded into weeks of pre-sales and countdowns, Tauffer noted.
“I’m not sure [Black Friday advertising] even works, but few brands would dare not to do it — it’s simply become the new normal in the market,” Tauffer said. It perfectly reflects the emotional pace of our times: always early, never enough.”
While craft stores and costume retailers see significant August and September activity, candy purchases remain stubbornly tied to Halloween week itself. Attain’s data shows that chocolate candy spending peaks sharply in October, with average total spend reaching $13.50 compared to $9.31 in August and $10.07 in September. Similarly, gummy and chewy candy spending jumps to $7.41 in October, up from $6.36 and $6.54 in August and September respectively.
This pattern reflects what Jordan Witmer, managing director of Retail & Commerce Media at Salt Media, describes as one of Halloween’s “micro-seasons.”
According to Witmer, “One of the longest established retail habits around the holiday is in the 2-3 days ahead of Halloween when the vast majority of candy is purchased. That decision process is well-established: consumers realize they need candy, walk into the store and buy the bag that meets their expectations of price and expected ‘trick or treat’ traffic.”
Lynn Rupprecht, Commerce Media Practice Lead/Advisor at MadConnect, arrived at a similar conclusion. “Results show the Halloween shopping season is difficult to stretch out in an attempt to drive incremental purchases early,” she said. “Brands should focus on spend and in-store activity in the six weeks prior to Halloween, with more than 40% of sales happening in the last two weeks of Oct and 15% of sales the week of the holiday.”
Consumers, particularly younger generations, have evolved their perceptions and celebrations of Halloween. The holiday has evolved from a single evening of trick-or-treating on October 31 into a multi-week season of parties, decorating, crafting, and costume planning.
“Consumers are excited about the Halloween holiday as a signal of the changing season, and it’s driven in large part by younger generations who are more excited about Halloween as a full-fledged holiday season rather than a day to hand out candy,” Witmer added.
His observation is backed by purchasing trends: adult costume sales and sales growth has outpaced children’s costume growth since 2020, while seasonal decor categories continue to expand even as candy-focused purchases have remained stagnant or declined.
Chris Wallrapp, CEO of independent agency Fitzco, noted the practical implications. “From a consumer behavior standpoint, nearly half of shoppers begin before October, so brands that ignore the early window may miss part of the opportunity,” he said.
The success of early Halloween marketing hinges on understanding its distinct phases. Witmer identifies three key micro-seasons: the longer planning season (August-early September), when consumers consider parties, crafts, and decorating projects; Halloween party season (the week leading up to October 31), when those plans come to fruition; and the candy rush in the final 2-3 days before the holiday.
“‘Does it work’ may not mean ‘You bought your costume in August,’” Witmer said. “It’s more important that it increases the odds a consumer and their family participates in the holiday, adds a party or craft this year, or buys their candy early before the huge discounts hit.”
Devenow echoed this sentiment. “If August campaigns feel like noise, consumers ignore them. But when retailers use that early runway to help people plan, budget, or get inspired, it stops feeling premature and starts feeling practical. Early marketing works when it's useful,” she said.
Industry experts emphasize that timing alone doesn’t guarantee success. The key is strategic execution that respects both consumer readiness and competitive dynamics.
Rupprecht cautioned against jumping the gun.
“Don't squander your budget trying to get customers to buy Halloween decor and merch in August and early September,” Rupprecht said. “They’re still trying to find shoes and supplies for back-to-school. Timing is an important component of personalization and relevancy.”
Wallrapp recommended a nuanced approach as well. “I’d recommend for brands that they tailor early marketing to the ‘spooky season’ — rather than full Halloween — mindset, segment early shoppers versus last-minute buyers, vary offers and messaging. And then monitor sentiment and adjust based on the early signals they’re tracking,” Wallrapp said.
The risk of overreach is real. Wallrapp noted that while his firm has “seen very few signs of large-scale consumer irritation or ‘creeped out’ reaction, that doesn’t mean brands are free to start six months early without a strategy. There is a risk that too early or too aggressive can feel off-brand and reduce impact.”
“Consumers may be shaking their fists at the sky after seeing early Halloween displays or store openings,” said Witmer, “but then they're texting their friends and suggesting they plan a party. Halloween has become much more than ‘trick or treat.’”
